Saturday, October 15, 2016

Where could a Cubs world series land?

World Series winners in the Wild Card era have been a crapshoot. Teams that spent six months beating up on the rest of the baseball world have more often than not run into a hot pitcher, suffered slumps at the wrong time or just suffered bad baseball luck.

Since creating the Wild Card in 1994, just four teams with the best record in the major leagues have gone on to win the World Series, the 1998 and 2009 Yankees and 2007 and 2013 Red Sox.

In that same time, seven Wild Card teams have won titles, including three that snuck in on the second Wild Card.

A truly great team hasn't won a World Series since the 2009 Yankees. On my ranking of World Series winners since 1969, last year's Kansas City Royals come in a solid but not spectacular 17th.

My rankings are based purely on statistics. Here are the teams 1 through 46:

Greatest World Series winners of the division era (1969-present)
Rnk.
Year
Team
Win Pct.
Scale
Playoffs
W.S.
Win bonus
Total
1.
1998
Yankees
.704
1.000
.425
.605
1.250
3.984
2.
1976
Reds
.630
1.000
.624
.610
1.090
3.954
3.
1970
Orioles
.667
1.000
.605
.504
1.150
3.926
4.
1975
Reds
.667
1.000
.571
.339
1.150
3.727
5.
1984
Tigers
.642
1.000
.518
.454
1.110
3.724
6.
1989
A’s
.611
1.000
.439
.568
1.070
3.688
7.
1999
Yankees
.605
.800
.510
.636
1.090
3.641
8.
2007
Red Sox
.593
1.000
.411
.552
1.070
3.626
9.
2009
Yankees
.636
1.000
.444
.383
1.140
3.603
10.
1969
Mets
.617
.800
.574
.538
1.070
3.600
Rnk.
Year
Team
Win Pct.
Scale
Playoffs
W.S.
Win bonus
Total
11.
2005
White Sox
.611
.800
.513
.549
1.100
3.573
12.
1986
Mets
.667
1.000
.395
.337
1.150
3.549
13.
1978
Yankees
.614
1.000
.426
.391
1.070
3.501
14.
2013
Red Sox
.599
1.000
.399
.399
1.080
3.477
15.
1995
Braves
.625
.800
.496
.463
1.010
3.393
16.
1979
Pirates
.605
.800
.559
.366
1.050
3.380
17.
2015
Royals
.586
.800
.354
.445
1.060
3.244
18.
1982
Cardinals
.568
.800
.549
.335
.990
3.242
19.
1992
Blue Jays
.593
.800
.395
.403
1.040
3.232
20.
1971
Pirates
.599
.800
.417
.365
1.040
3.221
Rnk.
Year
Team
Win Pct.
Scale
Playoffs
W.S.
Win bonus
Total
21.
1993
Blue Jays
.586
.800
.387
.399
1.030
3.202
22.
1991
Twins
.586
.800
.450
.331
1.030
3.197
23.
1990
Reds
.562
.600
.391
.636
.990
3.179
24.
2004
Red Sox
.605
.400
.420
.648
1.090
3.163
25.
1983
Orioles
.605
.600
.458
.445
1.050
3.158
26.
2012
Giants
.580
.600
.331
.543
1.050
3.104
27.
2008
Phillies
.568
.600
.416
.479
1.030
3.093
28.
1972
A’s
.600
.800
.331
.353
1.000
3.083
29.
1988
Dodgers
.584
.600
.357
.514
1.020
3.075
30.
1977
Yankees
.617
.600
.378
.403
1.070
3.068
Rnk.
Year
Team
Win Pct.
Scale
Playoffs
W.S.
Win bonus
Total
31.
1974
A’s
.556
.600
.422
.504
.970
3.052
32.
2010
Giants
.568
.600
.408
.445
1.030
3.051
33.
1996
Yankees
.568
.600
.427
.395
1.030
3.020
34.
2000
Yankees
.540
.600
.358
.464
.980
2.942
35.
2001
Diamondbacks
.568
.600
.389
.339
1.030
2.927
36.
2002
Angels
.611
.400
.473
.337
1.100
2.921
37.
1981
Dodgers
.573
.600
.333
.367
1.020
2.893
38.
1980
Phillies
.562
.600
.343
.399
.980
2.884
39.
1987
Twins
.525
.600
.484
.335
.930
2.874
40.
1985
Royals
.562
.600
.351
.357
.980
2.850
Rnk.
Year
Team
Win Pct.
Scale
Playoffs
W.S.
Win bonus
Total
41.
1973
A’s
.580
.600
.359
.291
1.010
2.840
42.
1997
Marlins
.568
.400
.463
.305
1.030
2.766
43.
2003
Marlins
.562
.400
.367
.416
1.020
2.765
44.
2014
Giants
.543
.200
.455
.314
1.000
2.511
45.
2011
Cardinals
.556
.200
.387
.339
1.010
2.492
46.
2006
Cardinals
.515
.200
.366
.469
.940
2.490
Here is how the formula works. I'll use my 1976 Cincinnati Reds as an example:
Winning percentage: 102-60, .630
Scale: 1.00 for having best record in major leagues
Playoffs: The Reds swept the Phillies in three games. The Phillies went 101-61 or .624 - (3*.624)/3 = .624
World Series: The Reds swept the Yankees, which were 99-63 for a .610 winning percent or (4*.610)/4 = .610
Finally, teams get .01 for every win, regular season and playoffs. The Reds ended up winning 109 games that year for 1.09.
Total score, 3.954

Where could the Cubs land if they win it all?
The regular season winning percentage of .640 (103-58-1) would be the fifth highest. Only the 1998 Yankees, 1970 Orioles, 1975 Reds, 1984 Tigers and 1986 Mets had higher.
The Cubs would get 1.000 for having the best record in the major leagues.
The Cubs ousted the Giants in four games. The Giants had a .537 winning percentage so if there was not another round then they'd get .402 = (3*.537)/4.
The Cubs would have to win 114 games to win the World Series, so that would equal 1.14. Only the 1970 Orioles, 1975 Reds and 1986 Mets would have won more.
So this Cubs team, if they can break the 108-year jinx, could be one of the five best teams in baseball history.

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