Sunday, August 18, 2019

A Hall of Fame case for Dave Parker

A fun thing on Facebook is getting involved in various groups. Personally, I'm included in a couple of boxing groups, which unfortunately seem to devolve daily into a Manny Pacquiao versus Floyd Mayweather argument.

One that I'm included in that is a lot of fun is a Cooperstown discussion group, which daily has people posting the cases for and against certain players.

In 2018, a special committee set up by the Hall of Fame chose to induct Harold Baines, who generated little support when he was voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Baines' induction has sparked interest in a lot of players who were snubbed by the baseball writers who seemingly have as strong or a stronger case than Baines.

Dave Parker has long been a curious snub. Parker believes it's because of the Pittsburgh cocaine trials of the 1980s. Parker has a good amount of "black ink" on his resume. He won batting titles in 1977 and 1978. He led the league in slugging percentage in 1975 and 1978. He led the National League in doubles in 1977 and 1985 and the National League in RBI in 1985. He was an MVP, seven times an all-star and two-time World Series winner.

His career numbers are better than borderline. He had a .290 career batting average. His 1,493 RBI still ranks 58th, ahead of a number of Hall of Famers, including Billy Williams, Eddie Mathews, Jim Rice, Orlando Cepeda, Duke Snider and Roberto Clemente.

He doesn't fare as well in advanced stats. He didn't draw many walks. His career-high was 67 in 1979 and finished with just a .339 on base percentage. His defense faded quickly because of bad knees and he finished with just a 40.1 career WAR.

One thing I like to look at is dominance. Years ago, Bill James came up with a good metric and that was to look at MVP voting. How many times was a player considered one of the best in his league? I created a metric adding up the vote percentages from each year. I'll take the 2018 National League MVP voting to show how it works.

In the National League, there were 1,888 total votes available in 2018 from the baseball writers. Trevor Story got 108 voting points. I took Story's 108 points, divided them by 1,888 and then multiplied that by 1,000. That meant Story earned 57.20 points. Charlie Blackmon got 1 10th place vote. That was worth 0.53 points (1 divided by 1,888 multiplied by 1,000). Christian Yelich, the MVP, received 219.81 points. He got 415 points in voting - it's weighted 10, 9, 8 .... - which computed this way, 415 divided by 1,888 multiplied by 1,000.

Not surprisingly, players who finished high in MVP voting in multiple years do well in this metric. Barry Bonds is tops in the post-Jackie Robinson era. I'll discuss steroids later. The rest of the top five, as you see below, is Albert Pujols, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron. There's no questioning their Hall of Fame credentials.

By this metric, Dave Parker ranks 23rd all-time and is ahead of a bunch of no-doubt Hall of Famers, including Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline and Roberto Clemente. The only players ahead of him that aren't in the hall either aren't yet eligible (Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera), are permanently banned from consideration (Pete Rose) or were known steroid users (Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez).


MVP Vote Percentages
Rank Player HOF Years with
MVP votes
Points
(yearly %)
1. Barry Bonds 15 2,201.86
2. Albert Pujols 13 1,641.45
3. Mike Trout 8 1,477.61
4. Willie Mays HOF 15 1,427.88
5. Mickey Mantle HOF 14 1,382.28
6. Hank Aaron HOF 19 1,307.68
7. Alex Rodriguez 14 1,245.37
8. Mike Schmidt HOF 12 1,178.11
9. Frank Robinson HOF 15 1,150.71
10. Miguel Cabrera 14 1,130.13
11. Stan Musial HOF 14 1,127.31
12. Yogi Berra HOF 15 949.68
13. Ted Williams* HOF 13 911.23
14. Brooks Robinson HOF 12 876.98
15. Pete Rose 15 875.49
16. Frank Thomas HOF 7 846.92
17. Eddie Murray HOF 9 791.53
18. George Brett HOF 11 785.20
19. Willie Stargell HOF 11 782.49
20. Reggie Jackson HOF 13 778.60
21. Harmon Killebrew HOF 11 775.80
22. Mike Piazza HOF 9 768.86
23. Dave Parker 9 757.99
24. Jim Rice HOF 8 744.80
25. Ken Griffey Jr. HOF 10 738.98
26. Joe Morgan HOF 7 721.35
27. Manny Ramirez 11 720.19
28. David Ortiz 8 711.87
29. Joey Votto 8 700.21
30. Al Kaline HOF 14 698.80
31. Vladimir Guerrero HOF 12 694.69
32. Ernie Banks HOF 11 692.56
33. Jeff Bagwell HOF 10 676.12
34. Roberto Clemente HOF 12 669.99
35. Johnny Bench HOF 10 656.98
36. Derek Jeter 12 655.57
37. Juan Gonzalez 7 653.36
38. Kirby Puckett HOF 9 605.99
39. Roy Campanella** HOF 7 600.32
40. Ryan Howard 6 590.04
41. Gary Sheffield 7 588.28
42. Steve Garvey 9 586.20
43. Rickey Henderson HOF 8 583.73
44. Sammy Sosa 9 583.69
45. Warren Spahn HOF 15 580.76
46. Nellie Fox HOF 10 575.85
47. Chipper Jones HOF 13 574.15
48. Albert Belle 6 564.94
49. Andrew McCutcheon 4 563.56
50. Josh Donaldson 6 562.47
51. George Foster 5 562.16
52. Andre Dawson HOF 9 561.55
53. Adrian Beltre 8 552.74
54. Cal Ripken HOF 10 548.22
55. Dale Murphy 7 547.50
56. Mookie Betts 5 543.30
57. Pedro Guerrero 6 543.17
58. Sandy Koufax HOF 6 540.93
59. Carl Yastrzemski HOF 14 534.26
60. Don Mattingly 7 527.30
61. Roger Clemens 10 522.62
62. Dave Winfield HOF 9 522.58
63. Jason Giambi 7 519.98
64. Robinson Cano 8 519.37
65. Keith Hernandez 8 495.97
66. Joe Mauer 5 495.97
67. Lance Berkman 7 477.20
68. Ryne Sandberg HOF 6 467.69
69. Duke Snider HOF 8 466.87
70. Ryan Braun 7 465.04
71. Boog Powell 6 460.34
72. Gary Carter HOF 7 458.36
73. Robin Roberts HOF 7 457.63
74. George Bell 6 456.57
75. Nolan Arenado 5 456.04
76. Mark McGwire 10 455.05
77. Tony Gwynn HOF 12 454.97
78. Tony Oliva 8 453.31
79. Roberto Alomar HOF 7 451.58
80. Paul Goldschmidt 6 450.28
81. Minnie Minoso 8 449.86
82. Phil Rizzuto HOF 6 447.28
83. Jose Altuve 5 439.47
84. Orlando Cepeda HOF 8 439.37
85. Prince Fielder 6 438.94
86. Maury Wills 8 438.43
87. Will Clark 5 438.26
88. Matt Williams 4 434.16
89. Robin Yount HOF 7 426.50
90. Rod Carew HOF 9 425.09
91. Dennis Eckersly HOF 5 420.18
92. Jackie Robinson HOF 8 411.41
93. Darryl Strawberry 4 405.37
94. Eddie Mathews HOF 10 402.11
95. Christian Yelich 3 401.55
96. Nomar Garciaparra 7 397.55
97. Cecil Fielder 4 397.09
98. Willie McCovey HOF 10 390.30
99. Dick Groat 4 388.86
100. Dick Allen 7 388.35
Hall of Famers
103. Billy Williams HOF 8 379.24
104. Lou Brock HOF 10 379.11
108. Bob Lemon HOF 6 369.66
116. Lou Boudreau HOF 3 354.52
119. Pee Wee Reese HOF 10 351.17
120. Joe Torre HOF 7 348.37
122. Joe DiMaggio HOF 4 345.58
124. Rollie Fingers HOF 7 338.22
129. Tom Seaver HOF 10 329.09
135. Steve Carlton HOF 6 322.03
136. Red Schoendienst HOF 5 321.37
139. Ralph Kiner HOF 6 308.82
145. Carlton Fisk HOF 7 303.29
146. Paul Molitor HOF 8 302.69
151. Luis Aparicio HOF 10 293.23
154. Bob Gibson HOF 6 292.23
155. Ron Santo HOF 7 290.16
156. Jim Thome HOF 9 289.20
157. Alan Trammell HOF 7 288.79
158. Wade Boggs HOF 9 286.95
160. Bruce Sutter HOF 6 283.97
172. Greg Maddux HOF 6 263.75
175. Early Wynn HOF 7 259.89
177. Barry Larkin HOF 6 259.17
180. Whitey Ford HOF 9 255.47
186. Ivan Rodriguez HOF 6 247.24
187. Craig Biggio HOF 5 243.24
189. Jim Palmer HOF 8 242.35
191. Enos Slaughter HOF 4 240.38
193. Edgar Martinez HOF 5 239.71
194. Tim Raines HOF 7 237.35
206. Goose Gossage HOF 5 225.48
207. Larry Doby** HOF 4 224.91
212. Tony Perez HOF 7 221.28
223. Juan Marichal HOF 7 209.38
237. Randy Johnson HOF 9 191.21
258. Catfish Hunter HOF 5 171.72
269. Fergie Jenkins HOF 6 166.94
278. Ozzie Smith HOF 6 159.61
292. Richie Ashburn HOF 8 150.43
303. Don Drysdale HOF 4 146.60
322. Gaylord Perry HOF 6 133.24
332. Monte Irvin** HOF 3 128.53
332. Bob Feller* HOF 3 128.53
338. Johnny Mize* HOF 4 126.75
341. Mariano Rivera HOF 9 125.32
363. Hoyt Wilhelm HOF 4 113.57
394. Trevor Hoffman HOF 5 98.12
399. Roy Halladay HOF 2 96.40
402. John Smoltz HOF 4 93.60
420. Joe Gordon HOF 2 86.16
436. Lee Smith HOF 4 81.82
464. Harold Baines HOF 4 70.87
552. Phil Niekro HOF 3 46.62
558. Bill Mazeroski HOF 2 45.62
570. Jack Morris HOF 5 42.98
631. Tom Glavine HOF 5 29.93
992. Mike Mussina HOF 2 6.05
* - doesn't include pre-Jackie Robinson MVP votes.
** - players played in Negro Leagues and would have been in majors longer if not fan ban.

Quite a few of the players on this list played in the steroid era and had MVP-level seasons when they were on the juice. I went through and eliminated the points gained from those seasons and ran the rankings again. It's a more accurate, but hardly 100 percent fair, look at how much that era skews how we rank players.



MVP Vote Percentages
Rank Player HOF Years with
MVP votes
Points
(yearly %)
1. Albert Pujols 13 1,641.45
2. Mike Trout 8 1,477.61
3. Willie Mays HOF 15 1,427.88
4. Mickey Mantle HOF 14 1,382.28
5. Hank Aaron HOF 19 1,307.68
6. Mike Schmidt HOF 12 1,178.11
7. Frank Robinson HOF 15 1,150.71
8. Barry Bonds 9 1,142.01
9. Miguel Cabrera 14 1,130.13
10. Stan Musial HOF 14 1,127.31
11. Yogi Berra HOF 15 949.68
12. Ted Williams* HOF 13 911.23
13. Brooks Robinson HOF 12 876.98
14. Pete Rose 15 875.49
15. Alex Rodriguez 11 859.17
16. Frank Thomas HOF 7 846.92
17. Eddie Murray HOF 9 791.53
18. George Brett HOF 11 785.20
19. Willie Stargell HOF 11 782.49
20. Reggie Jackson HOF 13 778.60
21. Harmon Killebrew HOF 11 775.80
22. Mike Piazza HOF 9 768.86
23. Dave Parker 9 757.99
24. Jim Rice HOF 8 744.80
25. Ken Griffey Jr. HOF 10 738.98
26. Joe Morgan HOF 7 721.35
27. Joey Votto 8 700.21
28. Al Kaline HOF 14 698.80
29. Vladimir Guerrero HOF 12 694.69
30. Ernie Banks HOF 11 692.56
31. Jeff Bagwell HOF 10 676.12
32. Roberto Clemente HOF 12 669.99
33. Manny Ramirez 10 659.66
34. Johnny Bench HOF 10 656.98
35. Derek Jeter 12 655.57
36. Juan Gonzalez 7 653.36
37. David Ortiz 7 633.18
38. Kirby Puckett HOF 9 605.99
39. Roy Campanella** HOF 7 600.32
40. Ryan Howard 6 590.04
41. Steve Garvey 9 586.20
42. Rickey Henderson HOF 8 583.73
43. Warren Spahn HOF 15 580.76
44. Nellie Fox HOF 10 575.85
45. Chipper Jones HOF 13 574.15
46. Albert Belle 6 564.94
47. Andrew McCutcheon 4 563.56
48. Josh Donaldson 6 562.47
49. George Foster 5 562.16
50. Andre Dawson HOF 9 561.55
51. Sammy Sosa 8 555.63
52. Adrian Beltre 8 552.74
53. Cal Ripken HOF 10 548.22
54. Dale Murphy 7 547.50
55. Mookie Betts 5 543.30
56. Pedro Guerrero 6 543.17
57. Sandy Koufax HOF 6 540.93
58. Carl Yastrzemski HOF 14 534.26
59. Don Mattingly 7 527.30
60. Dave Winfield HOF 9 522.58
61. Robinson Cano 8 519.37
62. Keith Hernandez 8 495.97
63. Joe Mauer 5 495.97
64. Lance Berkman 7 477.20
65. Ryne Sandberg HOF 6 467.69
66. Duke Snider HOF 8 466.87
67. Boog Powell 6 460.34
68. Gary Carter HOF 7 458.36
69. Robin Roberts HOF 7 457.63
70. George Bell 6 456.57
71. Nolan Arenado 5 456.04
72. Tony Gwynn HOF 12 454.97
73. Gary Sheffield 5 454.27
74. Tony Oliva 8 453.31
75. Roger Clemens 8 452.38
76. Roberto Alomar HOF 7 451.58
77. Paul Goldschmidt 6 450.28
78. Minnie Minoso** 8 449.86
79. Phil Rizzuto HOF 6 447.28
80. Jose Altuve 5 439.47
81. Orlando Cepeda HOF 8 439.37
82. Prince Fielder 6 438.94
83. Maury Wills 8 438.43
84. Will Clark 5 438.26
85. Matt Williams 4 434.16
86. Robin Yount HOF 7 426.50
87. Rod Carew HOF 9 425.09
88. Dennis Eckersly HOF 5 420.18
89. Jackie Robinson** HOF 8 411.41
90. Darryl Strawberry 4 405.37
91. Eddie Mathews HOF 10 402.11
92. Christian Yelich 3 401.55
93. Cecil Fielder 4 397.09
94. Willie McCovey HOF 10 390.30
95. Dick Groat 4 388.86
96. Dick Allen 7 388.35
97. Larry Walker 8 386.20
98. Ken Boyer 8 385.53
99. Billy Williams HOF 8 379.24
100. Lou Brock HOF 10 379.11
Hall of Famers
103. Bob Lemon HOF 6 369.66
111. Lou Boudreau HOF 3 354.52
114. Pee Wee Reese HOF 10 351.17
115. Joe Torre HOF 7 348.37
117. Joe DiMaggio* HOF 4 345.58
119. Rollie Fingers HOF 7 338.22
124. Tom Seavers HOF 10 329.09
130. Steve Carlton HOF 6 322.03
131. Red Schoendienst HOF 5 321.37
134. Ralph Kiner HOF 6 308.82
141. Carlton Fisk HOF 7 303.29
142. Paul Molitor HOF 8 302.69
147. Luis Aparicio HOF 10 293.23
150. Bob Gibson HOF 6 292.23
151. Ron Santo HOF 7 290.16
152. Jim Thome HOF 9 289.20
153. Alan Trammell HOF 7 288.79
154. Wade Boggs HOF 9 286.95
156. Bruce Sutter HOF 6 283.97
168. Greg Maddux HOF 6 263.75
171. Early Wynn HOF 7 259.89
173. Barry Larkin HOF 6 259.17
177. Whitey Ford HOF 9 255.47
183 Ivan Rodriguez HOF 6 247.24
184. Craig Biggio HOF 5 243.24
187. Jim Palmer HOF 8 242.35
189. Enos Slaughter HOF 4 240.38
191. Edgar Martinez HOF 5 239.71
192. Tim Raines HOF 7 237.35
204. Goose Gossage HOF 5 225.48
205. Larry Doby** HOF 4 224.91
211. Tony Perez HOF 7 221.28
221. Juan Marichal HOF 7 209.38
235. Randy Johnson HOF 9 191.21
257. Catfish Hunter HOF 5 171.72
268. Fergie Jenkins HOF 6 166.94
277. Ozzie Smith HOF 6 159.61
291. Richie Ashburn HOF 8 150.43
302. Don Drysdale HOF 4 146.60
318. Gaylord Perry HOF 6 133.24
331. Monte Irvin** HOF 3 128.53
332. Bob Feller* HOF 3 128.53
337. Johnny Mize* HOF 4 126.75
340. Mariano Rivera HOF 9 125.32
361. Hoyt Wilhelm HOF 4 113.57
392. Trevor Hoffman HOF 5 98.12
397. Roy Halladay HOF 2 96.40
400. John Smoltz HOF 4 93.60
418. Joe Gordon HOF 2 86.16
434. Lee Smith HOF 4 81.82
462. Harold Baines HOF 4 70.87
551. Phil Niekro HOF 3 46.62
557. Bill Mazeroski HOF 2 45.62
569. Jack Morris HOF 5 42.98
631. Tom Glavine HOF 5 29.93
992. Mike Mussina HOF 2 6.05

In both rankings, it paints a strong case for Dave Parker and highlights how far the bar was lowered by the Harold Baines induction.

Since I published this ranking in the summer, the Hall of Fame has announced both its annual Baseball Writers ballot as well as its Veterans Committee ballot. The VC this year is focusing on players who might have been overlooked from 1966 to 1982.

The list includes one non-player, Marvin Miller, who isn't in because he dragged baseball's labor practices kicking and screaming into the 20th century. Using my MVP rankings, here is where the players on the ballot rank:

MVP Vote Percentages
Rank Player Years with
MVP votes
Points
(yearly %)
23. Dave Parker 9 757.99
41. Steve Garvey 9 586.20
54. Dale Murphy 7 547.50
59. Don Mattingly 7 527.30
110. Thurman Munson 7 356.66
180. Dwight Evans 5 249.43
275. Ted Simmons 7 159.95
534. Lou Whitaker 1 50.91
663. Tommy John 2 26.33

If you look at MVP votes, again it's obvious that Parker was thought of at the time as a dominant player. Modern metrics aren't nearly as kind. Steve Garvey is another one who was considered one of the best players in the game while he was playing, but his luster has faded in the new waves of metrics. The three position players at the bottom, Dwight Evans, Ted Simmons and Lou Whitaker were never considered among the best players in the game while playing but now have really good chances of getting in because of rankings such as JAWS and WAR.

Here's a look at my MVP rankings for the regular ballot. I'm only going to use the ranking with the steroid years filtered out. If I had a vote, I'd give my votes to the top eight players on this list and top two pitchers.

MVP Vote Percentages
Rank Player Years with
MVP votes
Points
(yearly %)
8. Barry Bonds 9 1,142.01
33. Manny Ramirez 10 659.66
35. Derek Jeter 12 655.57
51. Sammy Sosa 8 555.63
73. Gary Sheffield 5 454.27
75. Roger Clemens 8 452.38
97. Larry Walker 8 386.20
101. Jeff Kent 7 377.33
169. Andruw Jones 5 262.85
198. Jason Giambi 4 230.02
208. Alfonso Soriano 4 222.68
254. Todd Helton 5 173.73
263. Paul Konerko 5 168.89
315. Scott Rolen 4 135.59
476. Carlos Pena 2 65.38
516. Curt Schilling 4 54.71
589. Bobby Abreu 7 38.57
671. Chone Figgins 4 25.42
711. Cliff Lee 2 20.88
815. Billy Wagner 2 12.71
824. Jose Valverde 2 11.65
827. Eric Chavez 2 11.50
875. Andy Pettite 2 9.31
918. Adam Dunn 3 7.94
940. J.J. Putz 1 7.26
953. Rafael Furcal 2 6.89
1,113 Raul Ibanez 3 3.63
1,169 Brian Roberts 1 3.03
1,246 Omar Vizquel 1 1.82
1,320 Josh Beckett 1 1.21
1,332 Heath Bell 1 1.06
NR Brad Penny 0 NA

There are lots of controversial players at the top here because of steroids. Bonds, Ramirez, Sosa, Sheffield and Clemens all either admitted, tested positive or have very credible allegations that they used steroids or HGH to boost their careers. These rankings remove the seasons where they were likely on the juice. Players like Ramirez and Sosa, there might be several more that should come off but I couldn't find specifics to do so.

A few other players of note. Curt Schilling is an advanced stats darling, but he only received a smattering of MVP votes in four seasons. He's hardly a slam dunk. And near the bottom you'll find Andy Pettite (No. 875) and Omar Vizquel (No. 1,246). There is a lot of lobbying for and against for both of these two. Both Pettite and Vizquel spent the majority of their careers on great teams and made multiple trips to the postseason. Yet the writers at the time didn't think they were good enough for even a spare 8th or 9th place vote as among the best players in their leagues. They were just rotation and lineup fillers. I wouldn't vote for either.