I love the Cincinnati Bengals and yet I didn't watch last year's playoff loss. I forget now how many in a row it is. Four?
And the Bengals are 3-0 for the second straight year and getting love from CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco. The have stars at every skill position on offense (A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Hill/Gio Bernard) and one of the top offensive lines, perhaps the best offensive line, in the NFL.
On defense, the team is deep in the secondary and Gino Atkins is back to being a wrecking ball in the middle.
In short, the team has everything it needs -- but it has Andy Dalton at quarterback.
OK. I did some research to talk myself into believing these Bengals can actually not just make the leap and win a playoff game but win Super Bowl 50.
I looked at the other 31 quarterbacks who have been starters on Super Bowl winning teams and I somewhat talked myself into being a believer.
Andy Dalton is 28 years old. That's one of the prime ages for Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.
Age -- number of Super Bowl winners
22 -- 0
23 -- 1 (2%)
24 -- 1 (2%)
25 -- 4 (7%)
26 -- 7 (13%)
27 -- 9 (16%)
28 -- 6 (11%)
29 -- 4 (7%)
30 -- 4 (7%)
31 -- 4 (7%)
32 -- 3 (5%)
33 -- 5 (9%)
34 -- 2 (4%)
35 -- 1 (2%)
36 -- 1 (2%)
37 -- 3 (5%)
38 -- 0
39 -- 0
40 -- 0
Note: I'm including titles won by Bart Starr, Len Dawson and Johnny Unitas before there was a Super Bowl just to have an apples to apples comparison.
Even better, the average age of quarterbacks when they got their first Super Bowl (or AFL or NFL title) is 28.4 years old.
Age -- QBs getting first NFL/AFL title
23 -- Roethlisberger
24 -- Brady
25 -- Namath, Unitas, Montana, Wilson
26 -- Bradshaw, McMahon, Aikman, Eli Manning
27 -- Starr, Dawson, Griese, Favre, Rodgers, Flacco
28 -- Warner, Dilfer
29 -- Staubach, Hostetler, Rypien
30 -- Payton Manning, Brees
31 -- Stabler, Simms
32 -- Doug Williams
33 -- Plunkett, Theismann, Young
34 -- Brad Johnson
35 -- none
36 -- none
37 -- Elway
Dalton didn't get to the NFL until he was 24. He's already been a starter or at least gotten signficant playing time in four seasons. The average experience of Super Bowl winning QBs before winning their first title is 3.6.
Years of significant playing experience before first title
0 -- Hostetler, Warner, Brady, Staubach
1 -- Dawson, Montana, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Wilson
2 -- Unitas
3 -- Namath, Stabler, McMahon, Rypien, Aikman, Eli Manning, Flacco
4 -- Bradshaw, Plunkett, Favre
5 -- Starr, Griese, Simms, Williams, Young, Dilfer
6 -- Theismann, Brad Johnson
7 -- Brees
8 -- Payton Manning
9, 10, 11, 12, 13 -- none
14 -- John Elway
Of course, Dalton is not considered one of the great quarterbacks in the NFL, even with his hot start this year (66 percent completion rate, 8-1 TD to Int. ratio). So what. There are lots of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks who weren't great.
For decades, quarterback rating has been considered the No. 1 QB metric. I like the newer QBR ratings because it includes sacks and yards lost because of them in the overall rating. Still, for this, I looked at the traditional quarterback rating. Eighteen of the 31 quarterbacks never once led the league in QB rating.
Those non league leaders were: Namath, Bradshaw, Plunkett, Theismann, McMahon, Simms, Williams, Hostetler, Rypien, Aikman, Favre, Elway, Dilfer, Johnson, Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson.
If you want to look at teams that really relied on their QBs, only 10 won AFL, NFL titles in the same years that they led in QB rating:
Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Kurt Warner, Payton Manning and Drew Brees.
For as much flack as Dalton has gotten so far, he's already been chosen to play in two Pro Bowls. That means at least his fellow NFL players respect him. In fact, he's more "decorated" than six Super Bowl winning QBs.
Quarterback, Pro Bowls, All Pro
Payton Manning, 14, 7
Johnny Unitas, 10, 5
Brett Favre, 11, 3
Tom Brady, 10, 2
Joe Montana, 8, 3
Bob Griese, 8, 2
Steve Young, 7, 3
Drew Brees, 9, 1
Len Dawson, 7, 2
John Elway, 9, 0
Joe Namath, 5, 1
Roger Staubach, 6, 0
Troy Aikman, 6, 0
Kurt Warner, 4, 2
Aaron Rodgers, 4, 2
Bart Starr, 4, 1
Ken Stabler, 4, 1
Terry Bradshaw, 3, 1
Joe Theismann, 2, 1
Ben Roethlisberger, 3, 0
Eli Manning, 3, 0
Phil Simms, 2, 0
Mark Rypien, 2, 0
Brad Johnson, 2, 0
Russell Wilson, 2, 0
Andy Dalton, 2, 0
Jim McMahon, 1, 0
Jeff Hostetler, 1, 0
Trent Dilfer, 1, 0 *
Jim Plunkett, 0, 0 **
Doug Williams, 0, 0
Joe Flacco, 0, 0
* Yes, Trent Dilfer was a Pro Bowler. That shocked me, too.
** I actually had a Raiders fan argue with me on FaceBook that Plunkett should go into the Hall of Fame.
So there you have it. Dalton has the experience and is the right age to help the Bengals make the leap. And history has shown you don't have to be a great quarterback to win as long as you have a great defense (Terry Bradshaw, Jim McMahon, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Trent Diler, Brad Johnson) or are surrounded by tons of talent (Phil Simms, Mark Rypian, Jeff Hostetler, Doug Williams).
Am I convinced? Not really. I won't believe until the Bengals actually win a playoff game with Dalton as starter. I'm more sold on the Arizona Cardinals with Carson Palmer, who actually is an excellent quarterback who unfortunately has toiled on average to bad teams. But if the Bengals do win a playoff game, then I'm all-in on the Red Rifle.
