The case for Justin Fields

I live in Chicago Bears country and the main thing occupying Bears fans is whether or not to keep Justin Fields as the starting quarterback for next season or use the No. 1 overall draft pick on a quarterback - Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

On Facebook, the most intriguing comment in favor of Fields is the known versus the unknown. The poster's point, you know what you have in Fields and general managers routinely screw up quarterback evaluations so go with what you know.

The best case in point is Brock Purdy. The San Francisco QB famously was the last player taken in the 2022 draft - 262nd overall. Purdy is likely to finish in the top three in MVP voting this year. The player he ended up replacing in the 49ers lineup was Trey Lance, who was taken third overall in the 2021 draft.

That is an intriguing point and one you can look at statistically.

Pro-Football-Reference.com has developed a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat for football called Average Value. It calculates it across all positions. The all-time leader in AV is Tom Brady for a career with 184. The highest single-season AV score is running back LaDainian Tomlinson with a 26 AV in 2006.

I took a look at every NFL draft back to 1993 (the last 30 not including 2023) to calculate the hits and misses.

Q: In those 30 drafts, what percentage did the first QB taken turn out to be the best of the top five QBs taken in the draft?

A: 40%

1993: Drew Bledsoe, first overall, had an AV of 105. Mark Brunell, 118th overall, had an AV of 96.
1995: Steve McNair, third overall, had an AV of 99. Kerry Collins, fifth overall, had an AV of 83.
1998: Peyton Manning, first overall, had an AV of 176. Brian Griese, 91st overall, had an AV of 54.
2003: Carson Palmer, first overall, had an AV of 107. Byron Leftwich, seventh overall, had an AV of 33.
2008: Matt Ryan, third overall, had an AV of 146. Joe Flacco, 18th overall, had an AV of 93.
2009: Matt Stafford, first overall, had an AV of 116. Mark Sanchez, fifth overall, had an AV of 32.
2010: Sam Bradford, first overall, had an AV of 44. Colt McCoy, 85th overall, had an AV of 17.
2011: Cam Newton, first overall, had an AV of 115. Andy Dalton, 35th overall, had an AV of 90.
2015: Jameis Winston, first overall, had an AV of 59. Marcus Mariota, second overall, had an AV of 54.
2016: Jared Goff, first overall, had an AV of 71. Carson Wentz, second overall, had an AV of 59.
2019: Kyler Murray, first overall, had an AV of 51. Daniel Jones, sixth overall, had an AV of 38.
2022: Kenny Pickett, 20th overall, had an AV of 7. Desmond Ridder, 74th overall, had an AV of 3.

Of course, 2022 has a small sample size so far.

Q: In those 30 drafts, what percentage did the first QB taken turn out to be the best player in the draft?

A: 16.7%

1998: Payton Manning, 176 AV. Second best player, Randy Moss, 124 AV.
2008: Matt Ryan, 146 AV. Second best player, Calais Campbell, 105 AV.
2009: Matt Stafford, 116 AV. Second best player, Alex Mack, 86 AV.
2011: Cam Newton, 115 AV. Second best player, J.J. Watt, 110 AV.
2019: Kyler Murray, 51 AV. Second best player, A.J. Brown, 44.

In the past 30 drafts, the best player in the draft turned out to be a QB 13 times. That means in 57% of the drafts, the teams would have been better off not drafting a QB.

Q: In those 30 drafts, what percentage was the best player in the draft not one of the top five QBs taken?

A: 6.7%

These are the dream picks all general managers want on their resume.

2000: Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick, 199 overall. The top five QBs taken in that draft were Chad Pennington (18th overall), Chris Redman (75th), Tee Martin (163rd), Marc Bulger (168th) and Spergon Wynn (183rd).

2012: Russell Wilson was a fourth-round pick, 75th overall. The top five QBs taken in that draft were Andrew Luck (first overall), Robert Griffin III (second), Ryan Tannehill (eighth), Brandon Weeden (22nd) and Brock Osweiler (57th).

Overall, the top two QBs taken have fared much better than the third, fourth and fifth ones taken. Here are the average AVs of QBs over the past 30 years.

Average AV for first QB taken: 61.8
Average AV for second QB taken: 47.9
Average AV for third QB taken: 25.8
Average AV for fourth QB taken: 20
Average AV for fifth QB taken: 19

Some years there are several good choices and other years, well, if you had a high pick you had bad luck.

The five best QB draft classes:

2004: Eli Manning (1st overall) 121 AV, Philip Rivers (fourth) 149 AV, Ben Roethlisberger (11th) 131 AV, J.P. Losman (22nd) 19 AV, Matt Schaub (90) 68 AV.
2005: Alex Smith (1st overall) 98 AV, Aaron Rodgers (24th) 163 AV, Jason Campbell (25th) 48 AV, Charlie Frye (67th) 8, Andrew Walter (69th) 1 AV.
2001: Michael Vick (1st overall) 92 AV, Drew Brees (32nd) 167 AV, Quincy Carter (53rd) 16 AV, Marques Tuiasosopo (59th) 1 AV, Chris Weinke (108th) 9 AV.
1998: Peyton Manning (1st overall) 176 AV, Ryan Leaf (second) 1 AV, Charlie Batch (60th) 34 AV, Jonathan Quinn (86th) 4 AV, Brian Griese (91st) 54 AV.
2008: Matt Ryan (third overall) 146 AV, Joe Flacco (18th overall) 93 AV, Brian Bohm (56th) 0 AV, Chad Henne (57th overall) 26 AV, Kevin O'Connell (94th overall) 0 AV.

The 2018 draft is going to end up on this list before too long. In 2018, Baker Mayfield went first overall, Sam Darnold is a disappointment at No. 3 and Josh Rosen bombed at No. 10, but Josh Allen was picked seventh overall and Lamar Jackson went at No. 32.

The five worst QB draft classes: 
1996: Tony Banks (42nd overall) 5 AV, Bobby Hoying (85th) 1 AV, Jeff Lewis (100th) 2 AV, Danny Kanell (130th) 2 AV and Spence Fisher (203rd) 0 AV.
2007: JaMarcus Russell (first overall) 6 AV, Brady Quinn (22nd) 2 AV, Kevin Colb (36th) 12 AV, John Beck (40th) 4 AV, Drew Stanton (43rd) 10 AV.
2013: EJ Manuel (16th overall) 10 AV, Geno Smith (39th) 31 AV, Mike Glennon (73rd) 9 AV, Matt Barkley (98th) 5 AV, Ryan Nassib (110th) 0 AV.
1994: Heath Shuler (third overall) 6 AV, Trent Dilfer (sixth) 51 AV, Perry Klein (111th) 0 AV, Doug Nussmeier (116th) 2 AV, Jim Miller (178th) 16.
2010: Sam Bradford (first overall) 44 AV, Tim Tebow (25th) 12 AV, Jimmy Clausen (48th) 3 AV, Colt McCoy (85th) 17, Mike Kafka (122nd) 0 AV.

Of course, the ultimate goal for the Bears is to win a Super Bowl or multiple Super Bowls. The question is can Justin Fields be a starting QB on a Super Bowl winning team? Here's a look at the past 30 Super Bowls and where the starting QBs were taken ... or not taken ... in their drafts.

In the past 30 years, 10 Super Bowls (33%) were won by teams with QBs who were the first picked in their drafts.

Matt Stafford (2022), Peyton Manning (2016, 2007), Eli Manning (2012, 2008), John Elway (1999, 1998), Troy Aikman (1996, 1994) and Steve Young (1995).

In the past 30 years, six Super Bowls (20%) were won by teams with QBs who were the second picks in their drafts.

Pat Mahomes (2023, 2020), Joe Flacco (2013), Aaron Rodgers (2011), Drew Brees (2010), Trent Dilfer (2001).

In the past 30 years, three Super Bowls have been won by the third QB taken overall.

Ben Roethlisberger (2009, 2006), Brett Favre (1997).

In the past 30 years, zero Super Bowls have been won by teams with the fourth or fifth QB taken overall in their drafts. That could change this year. Lamar Jackson was the fifth QB taken in 2018. Justin Fields was the fourth QB taken in 2021.

In the past 30 years, 11 Super Bowls have been won by teams with QBs who were not one of the first five QBs drafted. This, of course, is boosted tremendously by Tom Brady.

Tom Brady (2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2005, 2004, 2002), Nick Foles (2018), Russell Wilson (2014), Brad Johnson (2003), Kurt Warner (2000). Foles was a third round pick in 2012, 88th player taken overall. Johnson was a ninth round pick, 227th overall, in 1992. Kurt Warner famously was undrafted and had to work his way up from Arena football.