My guys at fivethirtyeight.com beat me to this with a post yesterday saying the newly minted Triple Crown champion American Pharoah is a super horse but no Secretariat.
That's an easy call no matter how you look at the data. In the history of horse racing in the U.S., Secretariat and the ancient Man O' War remain the top two contenders for all-time super horse.
Instead, I spent a little time yesterday ranking where American Pharoah ranks among the 12 winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. The answer is pretty high.
Note: I wanted to do a more comprehensive look at ALL horses that won at least two of the three races and competed in all three (sorry Man O' War), but it's been difficult to get the data necessary. Maybe I'll revisit it.
First step, I adjusted Sir Barton's times (the 1919 winner won the Preakness and Belmont under different distances) and added up the combined times of all three races. Here are the best horses from first to 12th:
1973 Secretariat, 6:16.4
1978 Affirmed, 6:22.4
1977 Seattle Slew, 6:26.2
2015 American Pharoah, 6:28.13
1943 Count Fleet, 6:29.6
1937 War Admiral, 6:30.2
1941 Whirlaway, 6:31.2
1935 Omaha, 6:34.0
1948 Citation, 6:36.0
1946 Assault, 6:38.8
1919 Sir Barton, 6:39.0*
1930 Gallant Fox, 6:39.8
Not surprisingly, times were getting better over the decades -- until the 1970s. That was a decade of super horses and not just Secretariat. Considering that Alydar finished second to affirmed by 1.5 lengths, a head and a nose, it is likely that Alydar would rank second or third on this list if his times were kept.
Then I looked at the cumulative number of lengths of which each horse won the Triple Crown.
1943 Count Fleet, 36
1973 Secretariat, 35.5
1948 Citation, 17
1941 Whirlaway, 16.5
1919 Sir Barton, 14
2015 American Pharoah, 13.5
1946 Assault, 11.25
1935 Omaha, 9
1977 Seattle Slew, 8.25
1930 Gallant Fox, 5.75
1937 War Admiral, 5
1978 Affirmed, 2
As mentioned above, Affirmed's dominance was lessened by Alydar. Secretariat had the huge Belmont win of 31 lengths, but in both the Derby and the Preakness he was pushed hard by Sham even while setting speed records.
Then I just looked at the times of each horse in each race to see how they would have finished.
Kentucky Derby
1. Secretariat, 1:59.4
2. Affirmed, 2:01.2
3. Whirlaway, 2:01.4
4. Seattle Slew, 2:02.2
5. American Pharoah, 2:03.02
6. War Admiral, 2:03.2
7. Count Fleet, 2:04.0
8. Omaha, 2:05.0
9. Citation, 2:05.4
10. Assault, 2:06.6
11. Gallant Fox, 2:07.6
12. Sir Barton, 2:09.8
Preakness Stakes
1. Secretariat, 1:53.0
2. Seattle Slew, 1:54.4
2. Affirmed, 1:54.4
4. Count Fleet, 1:57.4
5. Omaha, 1:58.4
5. War Admiral, 1:58.4
7. American Pharoah, 1:58.46
8. Whirlaway, 1:58.8
9. Sir Barton, 1:59.3
10. Gallant Fox, 2:00.6
11. Assault, 2:01.4
12. Citation, 2:02.4
Belmont Stakes
1. Secretariat, 2:24.0
2. American Pharoah, 2:26.65
3. Affirmed, 2:26.8
4. Count Fleet, 2:28.2
5. Citation, 2:28.2
6. War Admiral, 2:28.6
7. Seattle Slew, 2:29.6
8. Sir Barton, 2:29.9
9. Assault, 2:30.8
10. Omaha, 2:30.6
11. Whirlaway, 2:31.0
12. Gallant Fox, 2:31.6
If you give the horses points ranked on 12 for best and one for worst, I rank American Pharoah having just completed the fourth greatest Triple Crown campaign since it was created in 1919 by Sir Barton.
Rank, year, horse, total weighted points
1. Secretariat, 1973, 59 points out of a total of 60, still the standard all others have to be judged by
2. Affirmed, 1978, 44 points
3. Count Fleet, 1943, 44 points (his scored was helped by winning the cumulative lengths ranking)
4. American Pharoah, 2015, 41
5. Seattle Slew, 40 (slow Belmont time hurts his campaign)
6. Whirlaway, 1941, 32
7. War Admiral, 1937, 31
8. Citation, 1948, 27
9. Omaha, 1935, 26
10. Sir Barton, 1919, 20
11. Assault, 1946, 18
12. Gallant Fox, 1930, 10
