Thursday, October 30, 2014

Where these Giants rank among World Series winners

The World Series can be a let down. A sweep is no fun for anyone other than fans of the winning team. A really good series, with lots of momentum swings that come down to a great Game 7 is very rare.

I was too young to appreciate 1975. The Twins-Braves series of 1991 was pretty epic. The Royals-Giants this year is going to be remembered, especially the ninth inning with the two-out triple that kept people on their feet until the final pop fly.

In terms of baseball greatness, well neither the Royals nor the Giants are going to go down as one of baseball's greats. The Giants won just 88 games during the regular season and the Royals won 89. Both teams were only playing because of the wild card, which still rankles purists but truthfully does create added excitement in October when many fans are tuning out.

I created a quick analysis a couple of weeks ago to rank all of the winners of the World Series in the multi-division era, which began in 1969. Ever since baseball created two divisions in 1969 and added a third along with a wild card team in 1995 the road to winning the World Series is much harder. Since 1969, the team with the best record in the major leagues went on to win the World Series just 11 times.

In fact, since the wild card was added in 1995, a team that didn't even manage to win its division now has won more World Series -- seven -- than the teams that entered the playoffs with baseball's best record -- four. That's an interesting phenomenon.

What is true baseball greatness? I spent a couple of hours today creating a quick ranking of all World Series winners since 1969. I gave points for:

* Regular season winning percentage. My 1990 Cincinnati Reds won .562 of their 162 games so they get .562.

* A ranking scale. If the team had the best record in the major leagues it received 1.000 points. If it had the best record in its league it received .800. If it was a division winner it received .600. If it was a wild card team but had a better record than at least one division winner it received .400. If it was a wild card team with a record worse than all division winners in its league it received .200.

* Playoff points based on wins times opponent winning percentage divided by total games played. My 1990 Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates in six games in the NLCS that year. The Pirates had a .586 winning percentage that year. So the formula reads (4*.586)/6 for .391 points.

* World Series points based the same way. The 1990 Reds swept the mighty Oakland A's that year. Oakland had a .636 winning percentage in 1990 so the formula reads (4*.636)/4 for .636.

Obviously, sweeps against teams with great records scores more points.

I added one more column, bonus points for wins. It is undoubtedly more difficult to get through the playoffs now. In 1976, the Reds swept the Phillies and Yankees to go a perfect 7-0. The Phillies won 101 games in 1976 and the Yankees won 97 during the regular season so it was an impressive pair of sweeps.

To balance things out for teams in the wild card era, I added .01 for each total win, regular season and playoffs. So the 1990 Reds, who had to win eight games to win the playoffs and World Series, received .990 points. In 2013, the Boston Red Sox won 108 games between the regular season and the playoffs so Boston received 1.08 points.

Got it? Good. Here's my list:

Win Pct.ScalePlayoffsWorld SeriesWin bonusTotal
1998New York Yankees0.7041.0000.4250.6051.2503.984
1976Cincinnati Reds0.6301.0000.6240.6101.0903.954
1970Baltimore Orioles0.6671.0000.6050.5041.1503.926
1975Cincinnati Reds0.6671.0000.5710.3391.1503.727
1984Detroit Tigers0.6421.0000.5180.4541.1103.724
1989Oakland A's0.6111.0000.4390.5681.0703.688
1999New York Yankees0.6050.8000.5100.6361.0903.641
2007Boston Red Sox0.5931.0000.4110.5521.0703.626
2009New York Yankees0.6361.0000.4440.3831.1403.603
1969New York Mets0.6170.8000.5740.5381.0703.600
2005Chicago White Sox0.6110.8000.5130.5491.1003.573
1986New York Mets0.6671.0000.3950.3371.1503.549
1978New York Yankees0.6141.0000.4260.3911.0703.501
2013Boston Red Sox0.5991.0000.3990.3991.0803.477
1995Atlanta Braves0.6250.8000.4960.4631.0103.393
1979Pittsburgh Pirates0.6050.8000.5590.3661.0503.380
1982St. Louis Cardinals0.5680.8000.5490.3350.9903.242
1992Toronto Blue Jays0.5930.8000.3950.4031.0403.232
1971Pittsburgh Pirates0.5990.8000.4170.3651.0403.221
1993Toronto Blue Jays0.5860.8000.3870.3991.0303.202
1991Minnesota Twins0.5860.8000.4500.3311.0303.197
1990Cincinnati Reds0.5620.6000.3910.6360.9903.179
2004Boston Red Sox0.6050.4000.4200.6481.0903.163
1983Baltimore Orioles0.6050.6000.4580.4451.0503.158
2012San Francisco Giants0.5800.6000.3310.5431.0503.104
2008Philadelphia Phillies0.5680.6000.4160.4791.0303.093
1972Oakland A's0.6000.8000.3310.3531.0003.083
1988Los Angeles Dodgers0.5840.6000.3570.5141.0203.075
1977New York Yankees0.6170.6000.3780.4031.0703.068
1974Oakland A's0.5560.6000.4220.5040.9703.052
2010San Francisco Giants0.5680.6000.4080.4451.0303.051
1996New York Yankees0.5680.6000.4270.3951.0303.020
2000New York Yankees0.5400.6000.3580.4640.9802.942
2001Arizona Diamondbacks0.5680.6000.3890.3391.0302.927
2002Anaheim Angels0.6110.4000.4730.3371.1002.921
1981Los Angeles Dodgers0.5730.6000.3330.3671.0202.893
1980Philadelphia Phillies0.5620.6000.3430.3990.9802.884
1987Minnesota Twins0.5250.6000.4840.3350.9302.874
1985Kansas City Royals0.5620.6000.3510.3570.9802.850
1973Oakland A's0.5800.6000.3590.2911.0102.840
1997Florida Marlins0.5680.4000.4630.3051.0302.766
2003Florida Marlins0.5620.4000.3670.4161.0202.765
2014San Francisco Giants0.5430.2000.4550.3141.0002.511
2011St. Louis Cardinals0.5560.2000.3870.3391.0102.492
2006St. Louis Cardinals0.5150.2000.3660.4690.9402.490

The win bonus was enough to push the 1998 Yankees slightly ahead of my 1976 Reds.

This year's Giants settle in just above the 2011 and 2006 Cardinals. If that seems low then consider that of all the World Series winners since 1969, only three have had a worse regular season winning percentage -- 1987 Twins, 2000 Yankees and the 2006 Cardinals. And although they had to get through the toughest the National League had to offer in the playoffs and did it in fine fashion, winning 9 of 11 games, the Royals were hardly royalty and it took seven tough games and a historic performance by one pitcher to get the win. 

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